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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.