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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."